Talking to Putin: Europe seeks a
negotiator-in-chief for Ukraine
By Tim Ross, Zoya Sheftalovich
and Nicholas Vinocur - "Politico"
BRUSSELS — There is a growing realization among
European governments that they may soon need to nominate someone to face
Russian leader Vladimir Putin in direct talks on a peace deal for
Ukraine.
The main problem is deciding who should take on
such a hazardous task.
The question gained urgency this week after U.S.
presidential envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia
to offer Putin a three-way
summit with
Donald Trump and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an
effort to press for a ceasefire.
“President Putin disregards the European Union
as an authority,” Czech President Petr Pavel said Tuesday in an interview with
the Axel Springer Global Reporters’ Network, of which POLITICO is a part. “He doesn’t
want to talk to Ursula von der Leyen, he doesn’t talk to Kaja Kallas. He
stopped talking to other European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron.”
He added that the EU should “identify a person
or a group of people who would speak for Europe. Not necessarily
representatives of the EU or NATO, but simply leaders who would be given a
mandate by the others to negotiate.”
In recent days, Trump has dismayed Ukraine and
its European allies by talking over their heads with Putin and appearing increasingly willing
to take Russia’s side in the almost five-year war.
That has reignited debate in Brussels and beyond
about the need for Europe to have its own direct line to the Kremlin to
safeguard the region’s interests and bolster Ukraine’s ability to resist a
lopsided deal.
“Much as it sticks in the craw, I do think a
channel of some kind to Putin would be a good thing to have,” said David
Lidington, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in
London. “I am not optimistic that it would achieve anything much in the short
term, but to have a channel which can then be used as and when an opportunity
arises is not a bad thing.”
Diplomats and officials disagree on who would be
the best person to represent Europe.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president,
has negotiated directly with Trump on trade, while the president of the
European Council, António Costa, has previously opened a line of communication
with the Kremlin through his office. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas is
another potential player who speaks for European interests as
a whole.
But the Brussels bubble needs to accept that a
deal with Putin and Trump won’t be dictated by EU protocols, in the view of a diplomat
from a European Union country who, like others in this article, was granted
anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
“We cannot show up with two or three people all
speaking on behalf of the EU,” the diplomat said. “The choice of who ends up
representing the EU will be based on what would provide the most value, not
personal power struggles or narcissistic preferences.”
Will Stubb step up?
One name outside the EU’s machinery that is
gaining attention is Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland. Two key factors
count in his favor: He has arguably the best
relationship with Trump among EU leaders, and Finland has long experience of
dealing with Russia — the two countries share a 1,300 kilometer border and have been at war in the past.
“Stubb is of interest because of Finnish
knowledge of and traditional dialogue with Russia,” the diplomat said. “They
know more than anyone on our side [about] what it takes to feel secure in such
a situation.”
A second EU diplomat noted that Stubb was “the
only person who has come forward so far” to show high-level political leadership, and could serve as a European envoy at a future
peace summit. Stubb
was in Norway with Zelenskyy and Witkoff on Tuesday for negotiations ahead of the U.S.
envoy’s visit to Russia to meet Putin.
Also attending the gathering in Oslo was von der
Leyen’s most senior aide, Bjoern Seibert, who has joined meetings of national
security advisers as part of the Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine.
A third European diplomat said it was vital that
the EU itself be represented in the talks, instead of a small grouping of
powerful countries such as Germany, France and the U.K.
That means both Seibert and Pedro
Lourtie, the
top aide to Costa, must have seats at the table during preparatory talks, the
diplomat said, and that EU member countries must be properly updated on
progress.
Calling Costa
According to a fourth EU diplomat, European
leaders asked Costa at last week’s summit in Brussels whether it might be time
for him to talk to Putin. “Costa said, no, he’s not going to talk to Putin
now,” they said. “But Costa should start talking to Putin if we want to play a
role in the negotiations. By not speaking, we are playing into the hands of our
opponents.”
The fourth diplomat said Costa would be a better
choice than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are both seen as too invested in the
Ukrainian side to represent the EU effectively at leader level. Kallas in particular has been outspoken in her criticism of Trump.
“Costa comes across as more of an honest broker,” they summarized.
The European Commission insists the EU is
already present at the peace talks, flagging Seibert’s presence in Oslo on
Tuesday. “The main aim [in Oslo] was to explore if the parameters are there for
a possible move to trilateral or even multilateral talks with Ukraine and
Russia present at the same table,” European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho
told reporters on Wednesday.
She said the talks had focused on territory,
security and post-war prosperity for Ukraine; Witkoff is expected to debrief
Ukraine and the Europeans after his trip to meet Putin. “What is very important
is that we are sitting at the table, that we are able to present our position,
and that we can engage in what is a shared objective to put an end to this
horrific war,” she added.
***
(Gerardo Fortuna and Paul Ronzheimer
contributed to this report "Politico").